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This is not just a California issue. There are 40+ military installations in the state. THIS will affect our national security.
Please read the "Point of No Return" before you dismiss this as something that can be easily fixed.
From there, you can listen, read, or watch video to become more informed. Please share this with others!
Please read the "Point of No Return" before you dismiss this as something that can be easily fixed.
From there, you can listen, read, or watch video to become more informed. Please share this with others!
The Point of No Return (Situation Overview )
Recently I wrote an editorial about the threat to our military and the threat to our very way of life as Californians. Now, just three weeks later, events have occurred in our state and abroad that have put the risk at the point of no return.
In my previous writing I highlighted the fact that many of the oil refineries in our state have been shut down or cut way back. Since then, we have had the Phillips 66 refinery in Wilmington shut down on October 17th taking 140,000 barrels per day of crude oil refining offline. Originally Valero in Benicia was slated to shut down in April of 2026. However, given the fact that they cancelled their crude oil contracts over six weeks ago it looks like they will be shutting down no later than January of 2026, four months ahead of schedule.
Back in 2000 Valero purchased the refinery from Exxon for more than 800 million dollars. Now, in 2025, Valero is not even seeking to try and sell the refinery. Even after the state tried to convince Valero to remain open, they elected to shut down. And instead of shutting down in April, they have moved the shutdown ahead to January. All due to the state’s egregious regulations and unprecedented unjustified fines.
At this point we will be importing nearly half (50%) of our gasoline and 40% of our jet fuel from overseas. This is unprecedented in our country’s history. This leaves both us and our military at extreme risk to multiple events. Many of these have occurred just within the past 8 weeks.
• The Chevron Refinery in El Segundo had a massive fire resulting in a loss of both jet fuel and gasoline production. The loss of jet fuel forced a rerouting of a gulf tanker from the east coast to the west coast AND a rerouting of Northern California produced jet fuel south.
• A fuel oil tanker bound for a refinery in Singapore was hijacked by the Iranian revolutionary guard.
• A cargo ship at the port of Los Angeles had a huge fire resulting in it being towed out and away from the dock to prevent damage.
• A major Olympic gasoline pipeline near Seattle sprang a leak resulting in its shutdown for repair.
These are all real-world events that have just occurred. Real events that make us extremely vulnerable along with Phoenix and all of Nevada. One additional real-world event that can bring us severe shortages is the weather. When I ran the Valero refinery on the Control Board, we experienced crude oil shortages due to storms in Alaska delaying the tankers bringing Alaskan North Slope crude oil to Benicia. At one point I cut the refinery from 135,000 barrels per day down to 100,000 barrels per day.
In another instance we were mere hours away from running out of crude oil which would have resulted in a refinery shutdown. ALL these events are real. They have ALL occurred.
On the base case I see gasoline prices soaring to over $8 per gallon up to as high as$12 per gallon. We will in fact have the highest gasoline prices in the world. Diesel will go up accordingly. And since every truck, piece of farm equipment, and piece of construction equipment runs on diesel, we can expect the prices of everything to skyrocket!
WE can also plan on experiencing shortages! Especially in Phoenix along with Las Vegas, Reno, and California. If any of these real-world type events occur in conjunction with our overseas dependency, then we can expect severe shortages. Major episodes of civil unrest will ensue in all metropolitan areas. Chico will not be immune to these problems. Our military will most certainly divert jet fuel from civilian uses to keep it’s fleet airborne. However, if a significant event occurs in the world requiring military intervention, then we can still count on our fleet being grounded in short order as we have no substantial reserves to speak of.
At this point all efforts need to be made to keep the refineries open. The Marathon Refinery in Martinez needs to start back up. The PBF refinery in Martinez needs to come back up on full rates. Phillips 66 in Wilmington needs to be brought back up and Valero needs to remain online. Immediate federal intervention needs to take place. CARB, the CEC, and all other agencies that have caused this problem need to have all their influence on this industry suspended immediately and permanently!!! All efforts to help our refineries come back and remain online need to be made at the federal level.
Once these refineries go down for any significant amount of time they become very difficult to bring back up. This is due to mechanical issues and lack of qualified personnel. For instance, if Valero goes down for a significant amount of time very few people are available on the planet that can help bring it back online due to its unique complexity.
At this point POTUS needs to invoke articles under the Defense Protection Act and the National Securities Act to give refining corporations the immediate help and relief that they need to stay afloat and succeed. POTUS should also consider utilizing the Supremacy Clause of the U.S. Constitution to protect gasoline and jet fuel production along with petroleum assets.
Congressional members and assembly members need to pull their heads out of the sand! These problems are already here. If any of these real world events or a combination of events occur then we will experience the worst economic, civil, and military crisis of any state in history.
The question now stands at will we find the courage to realize that we are “AT the Point of NO RETURN” and take the necessary steps to turn this around? Or will we stand around and do nothing while everything crashes and burns??
Michael Ariza is a Chico resident and Navy Veteran who spent 3 years as a Control Board Operator at the Flying J Refinery in Bakersfield as well as 13 years as a Senior Control Board Supervisor at the Valero Refinery in Benicia California
In my previous writing I highlighted the fact that many of the oil refineries in our state have been shut down or cut way back. Since then, we have had the Phillips 66 refinery in Wilmington shut down on October 17th taking 140,000 barrels per day of crude oil refining offline. Originally Valero in Benicia was slated to shut down in April of 2026. However, given the fact that they cancelled their crude oil contracts over six weeks ago it looks like they will be shutting down no later than January of 2026, four months ahead of schedule.
Back in 2000 Valero purchased the refinery from Exxon for more than 800 million dollars. Now, in 2025, Valero is not even seeking to try and sell the refinery. Even after the state tried to convince Valero to remain open, they elected to shut down. And instead of shutting down in April, they have moved the shutdown ahead to January. All due to the state’s egregious regulations and unprecedented unjustified fines.
At this point we will be importing nearly half (50%) of our gasoline and 40% of our jet fuel from overseas. This is unprecedented in our country’s history. This leaves both us and our military at extreme risk to multiple events. Many of these have occurred just within the past 8 weeks.
• The Chevron Refinery in El Segundo had a massive fire resulting in a loss of both jet fuel and gasoline production. The loss of jet fuel forced a rerouting of a gulf tanker from the east coast to the west coast AND a rerouting of Northern California produced jet fuel south.
• A fuel oil tanker bound for a refinery in Singapore was hijacked by the Iranian revolutionary guard.
• A cargo ship at the port of Los Angeles had a huge fire resulting in it being towed out and away from the dock to prevent damage.
• A major Olympic gasoline pipeline near Seattle sprang a leak resulting in its shutdown for repair.
These are all real-world events that have just occurred. Real events that make us extremely vulnerable along with Phoenix and all of Nevada. One additional real-world event that can bring us severe shortages is the weather. When I ran the Valero refinery on the Control Board, we experienced crude oil shortages due to storms in Alaska delaying the tankers bringing Alaskan North Slope crude oil to Benicia. At one point I cut the refinery from 135,000 barrels per day down to 100,000 barrels per day.
In another instance we were mere hours away from running out of crude oil which would have resulted in a refinery shutdown. ALL these events are real. They have ALL occurred.
On the base case I see gasoline prices soaring to over $8 per gallon up to as high as$12 per gallon. We will in fact have the highest gasoline prices in the world. Diesel will go up accordingly. And since every truck, piece of farm equipment, and piece of construction equipment runs on diesel, we can expect the prices of everything to skyrocket!
WE can also plan on experiencing shortages! Especially in Phoenix along with Las Vegas, Reno, and California. If any of these real-world type events occur in conjunction with our overseas dependency, then we can expect severe shortages. Major episodes of civil unrest will ensue in all metropolitan areas. Chico will not be immune to these problems. Our military will most certainly divert jet fuel from civilian uses to keep it’s fleet airborne. However, if a significant event occurs in the world requiring military intervention, then we can still count on our fleet being grounded in short order as we have no substantial reserves to speak of.
At this point all efforts need to be made to keep the refineries open. The Marathon Refinery in Martinez needs to start back up. The PBF refinery in Martinez needs to come back up on full rates. Phillips 66 in Wilmington needs to be brought back up and Valero needs to remain online. Immediate federal intervention needs to take place. CARB, the CEC, and all other agencies that have caused this problem need to have all their influence on this industry suspended immediately and permanently!!! All efforts to help our refineries come back and remain online need to be made at the federal level.
Once these refineries go down for any significant amount of time they become very difficult to bring back up. This is due to mechanical issues and lack of qualified personnel. For instance, if Valero goes down for a significant amount of time very few people are available on the planet that can help bring it back online due to its unique complexity.
At this point POTUS needs to invoke articles under the Defense Protection Act and the National Securities Act to give refining corporations the immediate help and relief that they need to stay afloat and succeed. POTUS should also consider utilizing the Supremacy Clause of the U.S. Constitution to protect gasoline and jet fuel production along with petroleum assets.
Congressional members and assembly members need to pull their heads out of the sand! These problems are already here. If any of these real world events or a combination of events occur then we will experience the worst economic, civil, and military crisis of any state in history.
The question now stands at will we find the courage to realize that we are “AT the Point of NO RETURN” and take the necessary steps to turn this around? Or will we stand around and do nothing while everything crashes and burns??
Michael Ariza is a Chico resident and Navy Veteran who spent 3 years as a Control Board Operator at the Flying J Refinery in Bakersfield as well as 13 years as a Senior Control Board Supervisor at the Valero Refinery in Benicia California
| the_point_of_no_return_mike_ariza.pdf |
A Comprehensive Analysis
CALIFORNIA ENERGY & FUEL POLICIES: A CLEAR AND PRESENT THREAT TO NATIONAL SECURITY AND FORCE READINESS?
by
Stan Ellis, Member, California Assembly
Michael Mische, University of Southern California
Michael Ariza, Petroleum Professional & U.S. Navy Veteran
Released October 21, 2025
Washington, D.C.
16oo Hours
CALIFORNIA ENERGY & FUEL POLICIES: A CLEAR AND PRESENT THREAT TO NATIONAL SECURITY AND FORCE READINESS?
by
Stan Ellis, Member, California Assembly
Michael Mische, University of Southern California
Michael Ariza, Petroleum Professional & U.S. Navy Veteran
Released October 21, 2025
Washington, D.C.
16oo Hours
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Feb 28th PBF Energy warning letter to the CA Air Resources Board
Potential closure of 2 refineries. We'll be down to 5.
Basis for this article: Is the CARB really trying to force all in-state refineries to close? By Katy Grimes, February 28, 2026 9:05 am
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March 3, 2026 Chevron warning letter to CA Air Resources Board
Potential closure of 2 more California refinery operations. We'll be down to 3 in the state.
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“SEPTEMBER 5, 2025” “It is a very difficult place to do business. And if we don’t think we can get our return we’re going to put our money somewhere else. And I don’t want to do that. It’s regulation. It’s the cost of doing business. It’s the cost of labor. It’s the cost of building. Permitting fees and permitting time. It is a lot of things that make it very difficult for a company like Chevron and for a lot of businesses to do business in California. It’s very expensive.” With the closure of the Phillips Wilmington Refinery and Valero in Benicia “that means we lose another 20% of gasoline that people need to get to work, to get to school, to do the things they need to do. And that means prices are going to go up and it’s going to be less reliable. I think we are at that crisis mode. Chevron has been here for 145 years. We would like to stay. We haven’t made any decisions to stay or go yet. But we need real sustainable durable changes to the way the state works.” Andy Walz CEO Chevron Corporation
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March 9, 2026 Marathon Petroleum letter to CA Air Resources Board
Potential closure of 2 more California refinery operations. We'll be down to ONE in the state.
Marathon is the largest refiner in the United States and operates the largest refinery in California, our 365,000-barrel-per-day Los Angeles refinery. In addition, we operate Martinez Renewables, one of the largest renewable diesel production sites globally. These facilities play critical roles in supplying California and the broader West Coast with essential transportation fuels.
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Acronym Decoder - California State Agencies Involved
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Professor Michael Mische, MBA, MS, Cert-AI. Professor Mische is the Associate Professor of the Practice of Management and Organization. He is widely sought for his independent and objective perspective, exceptional consulting acumen, boardroom skills and direct, Socratic, data driven and client centric style of addressing highly complex and critical strategic, organizational, operational and positioning issues.
A member of the USC faculty since 1997, Mische is responsible for teaching and coordinating USC’s Marshall management consulting undergraduate and graduate curricula and programs. Mische brings over 43 years of global management consulting experience in strategic planning, mergers, turnarounds and strategic innovation to both the classroom and clients. Having studied the Oil industry since 1973, Professor Mische is considered to be an authority on Industry strategies from production to final downstream distribution. |
Stan Ellis
32nd Assembly District California State Capitol Office P.O. Box 942849 Sacramento, CA 94249-0032 |
Stan Ellis Stan Ellis is a farmer, local businessman, and community member with deep roots in the Central Valley. Growing up on a hog farm in South Dakota, he worked to put himself through college at the South Dakota School of Mines and Technology.
After graduating with a degree in mathematics, Stan settled down in Kern County, where he began an extensive entrepreneurial career. Stan started his career in the Kern County oil industry in 1975 as a “mud engineer” before forming his first company in 1981. After this company found success, Stan entered the chemical process industry to minimize waste from oil refineries. He started several small businesses across various fields, including oil, agriculture, chemical process, and reclamation. He has since founded a quantum physics lab as well as a company that works with the Department of Energy and the Department of Defense to advance cybersecurity in the U.S. His work in quantum physics includes innovations in quantum communication, quantum networking, and the development of revolutionary medical research and treatment using quantum entanglement. Stan utilized his experience and management skills to spearhead the collaboration between himself, Professor Mische, and Mike Ariza to deal with the energy crisis in California. |
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Mike Ariza Mike is a US Navy veteran with over twenty years of experience in the refining industry. His refining experience extends from the Chevron Refinery in Richmond California, the Flying J refinery in Bakersfield, and the Valero Refinery in Benicia. Mike held the positions of number one control board Operator at Flying J and Senior Refinery Control Board Supervisor at Valero.
He was an instructor of both operator field and control board classes. Among his peers Mike was well known for his control board skills during emergency situations. However, he was best known for his quick troubleshooting skills which he utilized to prevent emergency situations. Mike on numerous occasions prevented significant partial refinery outages. In addition, he utilized his skills to prevent two full refinery unscheduled downtimes. For these abilities, his peers often referred to him as one of the top ten control board operators in the country. |